Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 3820 · SEA → PDX
departs 6:58 PM PT · arrives 8:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
6pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at PDX that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.