OO 3846 · LAX → TUS

took off 7:17 PM PT · expected to land 9:27 PM MT (scheduled 7:21 PM PT → 9:59 PM MT)

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TUS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3846 · LAX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?