Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4013
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4013 · DTW → LEX
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
LEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.