Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4087 · SAN → LAX
departs 7:58 PM PT · arrives 9:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 42%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 23%
Tue 11/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.