Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4100
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4100 · SEA → SJC
departs 5:50 PM PT · arrives 8:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 21%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.