Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4159 · DTW → ATW
departs 9:09 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 20%
Sat 11/14 24%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
ATW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.