Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4173 · DTW → MBS
departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 10:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MBS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MBS usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.04 in
MBS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.