Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4643 · BIL → DEN
departs 5:51 PM MT · arrives 7:37 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 16%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BIL
Weather at each end
BIL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.