Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4684 · DEN → SAF
departs 7:20 PM MT · arrives 8:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 17%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAF?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.