Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4700
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4700 · ORD → MBS
departs 5:42 PM CT · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 30%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 27%
Sun 11/15 45%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MBS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MBS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MBS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.