Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4722
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4722 · RDD → SFO
departs 6:32 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 43%
Sat 11/14 29%
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave RDD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDD
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.