Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4799 · SAF → DEN
departs 6:00 PM MT · arrives 7:33 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAF
Weather at each end
SAF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.