Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4929
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4929 · PHX → MAF
departs 8:05 PM MT · arrives 10:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.