Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4932
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4932 · RIC → ORD
departs 8:11 PM ET · arrives 9:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 11/11 44%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 41%
Sat 11/14 42%
Sun 11/15 52%
Mon 11/16 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.