Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
OO 4949 · ORD → FWA
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 35%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at FWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FWA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at FWA that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
FWA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.