Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4981 · LAX → TUS
departs 4:51 PM PT · arrives 7:34 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.