Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
OO 5054 · LNS → ORD
departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 9:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 19%
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave LNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
8pm departures from LNS are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LNS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.16 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.