Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 5583 · SFO → RNO
departs 4:31 PM PT · arrives 5:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 43%
Sun 11/15 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.