Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 6188 · ORD → ERI
departs 9:12 PM CT · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 11/11 31%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 37%
Sat 11/14 40%
Sun 11/15 46%
Mon 11/16 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at ERI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ERI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ERI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ERI?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ERI that day
↓
ERI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ERI (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.