Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 6469 · ORD → SBN
departs 7:03 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 45%
Mon 11/16 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.