UA 1123 · SAN → EWR

departs 2:46 PM PT · arrives 11:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,133 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,133 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1123 · SAN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?