Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 1172 · ORD → YYZ

departs 1:57 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM EST

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±9 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1172 · ORD → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?