UA 1197 · EWR → DEN

departs 5:33 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±8 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,133 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,133 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.76 in

DEN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1197 · EWR → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?