Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1268 · EWR → MCO

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±10 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.56 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1268 · EWR → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?