Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1401 · DFW → ORD

departs 12:29 PM CT · arrives 2:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1401 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?