Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1504 · LGA → ORD

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±9 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.55 in

ORD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1504 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?