Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1847 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1847 · EWR → SNA

departs 2:14 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±11 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.56 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1847 · EWR → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?