UA 1875 · ORD → MCO

departs 4:28 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±11 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1875 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?