Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1885 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1885 · PHX → SFO

departs 8:32 PM MT · arrives 9:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling9,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1885 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?