Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1974 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1974 · LGA → DEN

departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.45 in

DEN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1974 · LGA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?