Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1986 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 1986 · SFO → OGG

departs 10:23 AM PT · arrives 1:50 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Gusts to 39 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts39 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1986 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?