Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1998 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 1998 · IAH → CVG

departs 12:21 PM CT · arrives 3:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1998 · IAH → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?