Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2054 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2054 · RSW → IAD

departs 12:32 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↑ 12pm departures from RSW are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2054 · RSW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?