UA 2158 · IAH → YEG

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 9:16 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

YEG (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2158 · IAH → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?