Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2189 · ORD → LGA

departs 1:00 PM CT · arrives 4:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±26 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2189 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?