Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2203 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 2203 · LAX → AUS

departs 12:46 PM PT · arrives 5:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2203 · LAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?