Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2262 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2262 · RDM → SFO

departs 1:49 PM PT · arrives 3:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at RDM that day

Weather at each end

RDM (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,567 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2262 · RDM → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?