Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2279 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 2279 · RNO → SFO

departs 2:14 PM PT · arrives 3:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±13 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2279 · RNO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?