Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2305 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2305 · SBA → SFO

departs 1:58 PM PT · arrives 3:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2305 · SBA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?