Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2340 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2340 · SFO → SEA

departs 10:01 AM PT · arrives 12:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2340 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?