Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2384 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2384 · ORD → SAN

departs 12:39 PM CT · arrives 3:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2384 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?