UA 2386 · BUR → SFO

departs 10:53 AM PT · arrives 12:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

57% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2386 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?