Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2414 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2414 · ORD → BNA

departs 10:59 AM CT · arrives 12:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2414 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?