Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 254 · RSW → EWR

departs 2:33 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±3 pts +26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 254 · RSW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?