UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?