Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 30 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 30 · EWR → MUC

departs 5:18 PM ET · arrives 7:26 AM CET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±7 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MUC?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

MUC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 30 · EWR → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?