Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 441 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 441 · ORD → DFW

departs 11:52 AM CT · arrives 2:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±8 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DFW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 441 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?