Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 58 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 58 · SFO → FRA

departs 2:03 PM PT · arrives 10:01 AM CET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FRA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

FRA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 58 · SFO → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?