Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 638 · ORD → SFO

departs 12:43 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 638 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?