Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 646 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 646 · ORD → DEN

departs 1:29 PM CT · arrives 3:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±8 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 646 · ORD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?